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Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051 NAPOLITANO LEADS GOVERNOR'S RACE A new statewide poll of registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University found that Democrat Janet Napolitano is leading Republican Matt Salmon 45% to 34% among all registered voters. Independent candidate Richard Mahoney received 5 of the vote, Libertarian Barry Hess 2% and 14% were undecided. Among those "most likely to vote," Janet Napolitano received 46% of the vote, Matt Salmon 38%, Richard Mahoney 5%, Barry Hess 1% and 10% were undecided. According to the poll director, Dr. Bruce Merrill, "Janet Napolitano is leading because more Republicans are 'crossing over' to vote for her than Democrats crossing over to vote for Matt Salmon (26% of the Republicans with an opinion are voting for Janet Napolitano while 10% of the Democrats are voting for Matt Salmon. Janet Napolitano is also doing well among political moderates and among women. Women with an opinion were crossing over almost two-to-one for Janet Napolitano (64% to 36% for Salmon). Although the undecided vote is low, there are still two weeks to go in the election and the race could end up being very close. The problem with all polls is that it is difficult to determine who will actually vote on election day. A higher turnout will help Janet Napolitano while a lower turnout will help Matt Salmon. In addition, there are two statewide televised debates scheduled before the election." All of the other races for statewide office are about even at this time with the exception of the Attorney General's race where Democrat Terry Goddard is leading Republican Andrew Thomas 41% to 32%. Libertarian Ed Kahn received 3% and 24% were undecided. Among those most likely to vote, Terry Goddard is leading with 42%, Andrew Thomas has 33% and Ed Kahn 2% with 23% undecided. With two weeks to go, only one of the three hotly contested gambling initiatives was receiving majority support from the voters. Among all registered voters, 50% favored Proposition 202, 34% were opposed and 16% were undecided. Among those most likely to vote, 51% were favorable, 36% were opposed, and 13% were undecided. Among those most likely to vote, Proposition 200 was failing almost four-to-one with 17% favorable, 70% opposed and 13% undecided. Proposition 201 was also failing three-to-one with 21% favorable, 67% opposed and 12% undecided. The statewide poll of 514 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.3%. The sampling error for those most likely to vote is plus or minus 5.2%. Fifty-one percent (51%) of those interviewed were female, 49% male. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17% in Pima County, and 25% in the less populated counties. The sample was 42% Republican, 36% Democrat, and 22% independent or other. Q1: This fall, there will be four candidates running for governor (rotate order names are read) Republican Matt Salmon, Democrat Janet Napolitano, independent Richard Mahoney and Libertarian Barry Hess. Have you decided who you will probably vote for in the Governor's race? IF NO: Are you leaning toward (rotate) Salmon, Napolitano, Mahoney, or Hess? IF YES: Will you probably vote for (rotate) Napolitano, Salmon, Mahoney, or Hess?
Q2: In the race for Attorney General will you vote for: (rotate)
* The "most likely to vote" category was determined by building an index
combining scores on several demographic and psychographic variables including:
frequency of media use, length of Arizona residence, age, education, how
closely people follow state and local politics in Arizona, and past voting
behavior. Q: There are three initiatives on the ballot regarding Indian gaming. All three would increase the number of gaming facilities and slot machines and allow Indians to add gaming tables. Proposition 200, sponsored by the Colorado River Indian Tribes, would give the State 3% of the net income from gaming for tribal and non-tribal college scholarships and elderly health care. Will you probably vote for or against Proposition 200?
Q: Proposition 201, sponsored by the race track industry, allows slots and gaming to occur at the tracks. It gives 40% of the gross revenue from the race tracks to the State for education, health care, emergency services, tourism and gambling problem programs. Eight percent of the gross revenue from Indian gaming would go to the State's general fund. Will you probably vote for or against Proposition 201?
Q: Proposition 202 is sponsored by 17 Indian tribes and would return between 1% 8% of Indian gaming revenues to the State for education, emergency services, problem gambling programs, and to provide general public services to cities, towns, and counties. Will you probably vote for or against Proposition 202?
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