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Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051 FEMALES, MODERATES, REPUBLICAN DEFECTIONS LEAD TO NAPOLITANO'S VICTORY TOP VOTER PRIORITIES ARE BALANCING THE BUDGET AND EDUCATION SURPRISING SUPPORT FOR TAX INCREASES A new statewide poll of registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University conducted Nov. 14 - 17, 2002, found that Governor-elect Janet Napolitano's victory was fueled by political moderates, women, and Republicans crossing party lines to vote Democratic. According to the poll director, Dr. Bruce Merrill, "Governor-elect Napolitano's victory coalition included women (56% Napolitano, 39% Salmon), political moderates (65% Napolitano, 27% Salmon), and a two-to-one party crossover factor (20% of Republicans voted for Napolitano, 10% of Democrats voted for Salmon). In addition, she almost broke even with Salmon in populous Maricopa County and won by a strong margin in Pima County. It also appears that Arizona voters perceived that Napolitano ran a better campaign than Salmon (31% to 19%) and did a better job focusing on issues (11% to 7%). I would also say the closeness of all the campaigns for statewide office indicates the Democrats did an unusually good job of getting their base vote to the polls on election day." The poll also asked voters to indicate what Governor-elect Napolitano's top priority should be when she takes office in January. Two issues appear to dominate people's concern. Forty-one percent (41%) of those polled said she should concentrate on funding state government and balancing the budget. However, almost as many people, 37%, said the Governor-elect's highest priority should be funding and supporting public education. The poll also found that support for raising taxes after Governor-elect Napolitano takes office is evenly divided - 44% support, 45% oppose and 11% are undecided. Difference in support was greatest between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are opposed to raising taxes by a two-to-one margin (64% to 36%) while Democrats support raising taxes by a two-to-one margin (65% to 35%). The only other statistically significant difference was between men and women. Men oppose raising taxes (55% to 45%) and women are supportive (54% to 46%). The statewide poll of 768 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5%. Fifty percent (50%) of those interviewed were female, 50% male. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17% in Pima County, and 25% in the less populated counties. The sample was 46% Republican, 36% Democrat, and 18% independent or other. Q1: I would like to know if you had time to vote in this year's election? IF YES: Would you mind sharing with us who you voted for?
Q2: What was the main reason you voted for Salmon/Napolitano?
Q3: When Janet Napolitano becomes Governor in January, what problem or issue should she set as her highest priority to do something about?
Q4: If Governor-elect Napolitano decides certain state taxes will have to be raised in order to balance next year's budget, would you 1. strongly oppose, 2. oppose, 3. support, 4. or strongly support her decision to raise taxes?*
*Categories were collapsed to indicate support or opposition. The percentages for party and gender are for those with an opinion. KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University |
