HORIZON . Search Topics Archives Horizon Site   
 

KAET-ASU Poll

Back to the KAET Poll home page

Contact Dr. Bruce Merrill (480) 965-7051
Can be used after 7:00 p.m., Tuesday, April 23, 2002

VALLEY RESIDENTS SUPPORT DNA TESTING OF DEATH ROW INMATES;

TIGHT RACE IN MARICOPA COUNTY BETWEEN NAPOLITANO AND SALMON;

NAPOLITANO LEADS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY AMONG MARICOPA COUNTY VOTERS

A new poll by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at ASU found that voters in Maricopa County support DNA testing of death row inmates to help determine whether they are innocent or guilty. The poll of 414 registered voters in Maricopa County, conducted between April 18-21, 2002, found that 84% of those interviewed would support such an initiative, and 11% would oppose it. Six percent (6%) had no opinion. Females were more supportive than males (92% to 85%, among those with an opinion).

The poll also found that 62% of registered voters in Maricopa County would support a moratorium on executions until the issues related to DNA testing have been studied. Among those with an opinion Democrats (82%) were more likely to support a moratorium than were Republicans (60%) and "others/independents" (68%). Similarly, self-described liberals (87%) were more supportive than conservatives (58%) and those placing themselves between liberal and conservative (68%). Females were also more likely than males to support a moratorium (75% to 63%), as were older voters (80% of those over 60, 64% of those under 60).

Fifteen percent (15%) of those interviewed said they had changed their position on the death penalty after learning that death row inmates in several states have been released because of DNA evidence. Eighty percent (80%) had not changed their opinion, and 6% were not sure. This change of position was stronger among non-college graduates than college graduates (21% to 12%).

Of those who had changed their position, most (56%) had either strengthened their opposition to the death penalty (24%) or had changed from previously supporting to now opposing capital punishment (32%). Only 2% had changed from opposition to support of capital punishment, and 5% now felt stronger about their support. Thirty-seven percent (37%) either specified other types of changed positions (25%) or could not say exactly how their position had changed (12%).

KAET and the Cronkite School also found that Janet Napolitano and Matt Salmon are effectively tied in Maricopa County in this year's race for Governor of Arizona. Thirty percent (30%) of those interviewed preferred Napolitano, 28% Salmon, and 4% independent candidate Dick Mahoney. Thirty-seven percent (37%) are still either undecided (32%) or not willing to reveal their choice (5%).

Among those with an opinion, non-whites favored Napolitano over Salmon (64% to 23%). Voters older than 60 also chose Napolitano (64% to 32%), and the two leading candidates were almost tied among voters younger than 60 (49% for Salmon, 43% for Napolitano). Self-described conservatives strongly favored Salmon over Napolitano (70% to 23%), liberals preferred Napolitano even more strongly (87% to 8%), and those in between liberal and conservative also favored Napolitano (56% to 34%). Men chose Salmon (52% to 41%), and women preferred Napolitano (57% to 37%). As for party loyalty among Republicans, 71% of registered Republicans would vote for Salmon and 27% for Napolitano. Among Democrats, 86% preferred Napolitano and 7% each chose Salmon and Mahoney. Among registered independents or "others," Napolitano was the favorite of 48%, Salmon of 38%, and Mahoney of 14%.

This poll of 414 Maricopa County voters has a sampling error of 4.8%. Forty-eight percent (48%) were registered Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 20% "others." Fifty-two percent (52%) were female, 48% male.

Eligible voters in Maricopa County were also asked to choose among the candidates in the Democratic primary. Of the 328 registered Democrats and independents intending to vote in the Democratic primary, Napolitano was the preferred candidate of 54%. Ten percent (10%) favored Alfredo Gutierrez, 3% Mike Newcomb, and less than 1% Mark Osterloh. Thirty-four percent (34%) were still undecided.

Napolitano was the preferred candidate of all groups. Gutierrez, however, was chosen by 38% of non-whites, compared to just 8% of whites. Gutierrez also finds more support among voters under 60 than among older voters (19% to 9%).

For the Democratic primary, the poll of 328 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.4%. Ninety percent (90%) of those interviewed were Democrats, and 10% were registered independents intending to vote in the Democratic primary. Sixty-two percent (62%) of the sample was female, 38% male.

Q1: Prisoners have recently been released from death row in several states, including one prisoner here in Arizona, after DNA evidence proved they were not guilty. Has this information changed your position on the death penalty?

  Frequency Percent Percent with an opinion
yes 61 15 16
no 330 80 84
total 391 94 100
don't know
no opinion
23 6  
total 414 100  

Q2 (ASKED OPEN ENDED AND ONLY IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED "YES" TO Q1): How has it changed your opinion?

  frequency percent percent with an opinion
from pro to anti 19 32 37
from anti to pro 1 2 2
more in favor 3 5 6
more against 14 24 27
other 15 25 29
don't know/
no opinion
7 12  
total 59 100 100

Q3: Would you support or oppose requiring all death row inmates to be given DNA tests to help determine if they are innocent or guilty?

  frequency percent percent with an opinion
support 346 84 89
oppose 44 11 11
don't know/
no opinion
24 6  
total 414 100 100

Q4: Would you 1.favor or 2.oppose a moratorium on executing prisoners on death row until the issues related to DNA testing have been studied?

  frequency percent percent with an opinion
favor 255 62 69
oppose 116 28 31
don't know/
no opinion
43 10  
total 414 100 100

Q5: If the Democratic primary for Governor is between Alfredo Gutierrez, Janet Napolitano, Mike Newcomb, and Mark Osterloh, who would you probably vote for? (CANDIDATES READ IN ALTERNATING ORDER)

  frequency percent percent with an opinion
Alfredo Gutierrez 32 10 15
Janet Napolitano 176 54 81
Mike Newcomb 9 3 4
Mark Osterloh 1 0 0
undecided/other 110 34  
total 328 100 100

Q6: If the election for Governor this year is between Republican Matt Salmon, Democrat Janet Napolitano, and independent Dick Mahoney, who would you probably vote for? (CANDIDATES READ IN ALTERNATING ORDER)

  frequency percent percent with an opinion
Matt Salmon 116 28 45
Janet Napolitano 126 30 49
Dick Mahoney 17 4 7
don't know/no
opinion
133 32  
would not reveal 22 5  
total 414 100 100

Due to rounding error, some percentages may not total to 100%.

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University