KAET-ASU Poll

Bush does well against his Democrat challengers in Arizona because almost one in four Democrats (23%) cross party lines to support him and because people who go to church regularly support him by a wide margin (average 38% advantage). The poll also found that while 50% of female voters support all the Democrat challengers, male voters overwhelmingly preferred Bush over any of the Democrat contenders (average 40% advantage). The poll suggests Bush's strong showing with men is mostly due to the fact that men are much more supportive of Bush's decision to go to war in Iraq and are more optimistic about the economy than women.

Bush's support for the way he is handling the economy increased significantly since September when 38% supported his efforts, 55% were opposed and 7% had no opinion. In November 47% were favorable and 45% opposed with 8% voicing no opinion. On the other hand, support for the way Bush is handling the war on terrorism has declined significantly since September when 64% were supportive, 27% unfavorable and 9% had no opinion. This month's poll showed 52% approved and 42% disapproved of the way Bush was dealing with terrorism, while 6% had no opinion. A majority of Arizonans (56%) feel the United States did not make a mistake going to war in Iraq. Thirty-six percent (36%) felt going to Iraq was a mistake and 8% had no opinion.

The survey also found that while most Arizona voters felt their financial situation had not improved since last year (21% said they were better off, 23% were worse off, and 56% about the same as a year ago), 38% of those surveyed expected their financial situation would be better a year from now. Ten percent (10%) expected to be worse off and 48% said their financial situation probably wouldn't change much. Four percent (4%) were undecided. Republicans, people age 30 to 45 and men were mostly likely to see their financial situation improving next year.

Finally, the survey found that by a two-to-one margin (59% to 28%) Arizona voters say they would support a guest worker program as a way to deal with the problem of illegal immigration. Thirteen percent (13%) had no opinion. Support for the guest-worker program was found in all political and demographic groups except for self-identified conservatives, liberals and those with a college education. Liberals were more likely than conservatives and college educated people more likely than those without a college degree to support a guest worker program.

The statewide poll of 409 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.9%. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18% in Pima County, and 25% in the less populated counties. Forty-two percent of those interviewed were Republicans, 36% Democrats and 22% independents. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the voters interviewed were female and 43% were male. Gender was statistically weighted to be 51% female and 49% male.

Next, we would like to know how you would vote for president next year if Republican President George Bush runs against each of the following Democrats.

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University