A new statewide poll of registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University between April 23 - 26, 2004, found that President George Bush and Sen. John Kerry are locked in a close contest in Arizona. Forty-one percent (41%) of registered voters in the statewide poll said they would vote for Bush, 38% for Kerry and 3% for Ralph Nader; 18% said they have not made up their minds about whom they will support. Three-fourths of both candidates' supporters (75% of Bush's supporters and 73% of those favorable to Kerry) said they were strongly committed to their candidate.

The poll also found that a considerable part of Kerry's support in Arizona is anti-Bush. While 16% of those voting for Bush indicated their vote would be a vote against Kerry, nearly two-thirds (64%) of those supporting Kerry say their vote primarily would be a vote against Bush. In addition, when given an opportunity to tell in their own words why they were voting for Bush or Kerry, few Bush supporters (7%) mentioned voting against Kerry. Sixty percent (60%) of the reasons given for supporting Kerry were that they wanted Bush out of office (34%) or that they were against the war in Iraq (26%).

The reasons given for voting for Bush and Kerry were interesting. Twenty-six percent (26%) of the reasons given for supporting Bush described the President as a God-fearing, honest and moral leader. Twenty-three percent (23%) described Bush as a strong leader who has done a good job as President. Sixteen percent (16%) of the reasons for supporting Bush focused on his strong stand in Iraq and 9% were related to approval of the job he is doing in regard to the threat of terrorism.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of the reasons given for voting for Kerry were specifically anti-Bush, indicating the need for a change in leadership. Another 26% of the comments were directed against Bush's decision to go to war or to the way he is handling the war. Twelve percent (12%) indicated support for Kerry because he is the Democratic candidate and 10% were related to approval of Kerry's positions on revitalizing the U.S. economy.

The poll also found several interesting differences in candidate support. Younger voters tended to support Kerry; older voters tended to support Bush. More Democrats were crossing over to vote for Bush (12%) than Republicans were defecting to Kerry (7%). Independent and moderate voters were more likely to vote for Kerry. Those who attend religious services on a regular basis supported Bush by a two-to-one margin over Kerry (46% to 28%). Those who never attend religious services supported Kerry by a two-to-one margine (51% to 28%). Interestingly, no "gender gap" was found in terms of how men and women are voting in Arizona.

The poll also suggests that Nader's name on the Arizona ballot would hurt Kerry's chance of beating Bush. While the number of people voting for Nader was small (3%), those who would vote for Nader were twice as likely to say they would vote for Kerry rather than Bush if Nader does not get on the Arizona ballot.

The survey also found that a majority of Arizona voters (50%) do not believe the United States made an error in using military force in Iraq. Forty percent (40%) opposed the use of force and 10% did not have an opinion. Bush also continues to receive strong support for the way he is handling the threat of terrorism. Sixty percent (60%) approved of the job he is doing, 31% disapproved and 9% said they had no opinion. Arizonans were more evenly divided on the job Bush is doing in managing the economy. Forty-four percent (44%) approved, 46% disapproved and 10% had no opinion.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill who conducted the survey, "This election is not primarily about Sen. Kerry, his personal attributes, the issues he supports or whether or not he would be a good president. This election is primarily about George Bush and whether or not he has earned another four years in office. The survey found that two-thirds of Kerry's supporters say they are really voting against George Bush. Bush's supporters are almost religiously supportive. The issues in the campaign--the economy, Iraq and terrorism--are very polarized. Bush supporters think he is doing a good job. Kerry's supporters are very opposed to the way Bush is handling these issues. Unfortunately, we are likely to see a very negative campaign over the next seven months."

The statewide poll of 410 registered voters has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.8%. Fifty-six percent (56%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 19% in Pima County and 25% in the less populated counties. The sample was 42% Republican, 36% Democrat and 22% independent. Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters interviewed were female and 45% were male.

Questions: In the upcoming presidential election will you probably vote for:

IF VOTING FOR NADER: Who will you probably vote for if Nader does not make it on to the
Arizona ballot this fall? Would you probably vote for:

The number of people voting for Nader is very small (13)]

Would you say you are strongly committed to (candidate) or only somewhat committed?

What is the SINGLE most important reason that you are supporting (candidate) rather than
one of the other candidates? BE SPECIFIC

BUSH SUPPORTERS

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KERRY SUPPORTERS

[There were 159 comments]

Overall, would you say you are voting more:

Regardless of how you are going to vote, do you feel the United States. made the:

Overall, do you:

Would you say you