A new statewide poll of 400 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University June 24-27, 2004, found that President George Bush's ratings for his handling of the economy, the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq all have improved since last month. Fifty percent of those interviewed approved of the way Bush is handling the economy, up from 41 percent last month. Fifty-two percent approved of the way Bush is handling the war against terrorism, up from 51 percent in May, and 44 percent approved of the way the president is handling the war in Iraq, up from 39 percent in May. A majority of registered voters (52 percent) now approves of the job he is doing as president, up from 48 percent in May.

The poll also found that Bush is now leading Sen. John Kerry in Arizona 47 percent to 35 percent. Ralph Nader is receiving 2 percent of the vote, and 16 percent said they are undecided. In May, Bush received 48 percent of the vote to Kerry's 41 percent, which was a statistical tie due to the margin of error in the poll.

Kerry voters were again more likely to be voting against Bush than for Kerry. Thirty-six percent said they were really voting for Kerry, 56 percent against Bush and 8 percent said they were voting both for Kerry and against Bush. On the other hand, Bush voters were more likely to be voting for Bush (76 percent) than against Kerry (19 percent). Five percent of the Bush voters said they were both for Bush and against Kerry.

Bush seems to be gaining in Arizona because Democrats are more likely to cross over to vote for Bush (14 percent) than Republicans are willing to desert their party to vote for Kerry (6 percent). In May, neither candidate benefited from a crossover factor. In addition, independents are now evenly divided between Bush (38 percent) and Kerry (37 percent). In May, independents favored Kerry (47 percent) over Bush (35 percent).

The survey also found that a "gender gap" exists in Arizona with women evenly divided between Bush (41 percent) and Kerry (38 percent) but men more likely to support Bush (55 percent) than Kerry (31 percent). Bush also does well with churchgoers. Voters from households in which at least one member attends religious services frequently or occasionally support Bush over Kerry 50 percent to 32 percent, with Nader getting 1 percent and 17 percent undecided. The vote is evenly divided between Bush and Kerry among those from households in which at least one member only occasionally or rarely attend religious services. Forty-four percent were voting for Bush, 39 percent Kerry, 1 percent were for Nader and 16 percent were still undecided.

According to Dr. Bruce Merrill, who conducted the poll, "It appears President Bush has now pulled ahead of Sen. Kerry in the race for the presidency in Arizona. Bush's lead is based on attracting more conservative Democrats, doing better among independent voters and strengthening his appeal to male voters. While Bush's ratings on the economy, the war on terrorism and the way he is handling the war in Iraq are still low, Kerry has not convinced Arizona voters he is a better choice than Bush. Bush has maintained his position while there has been considerable negative publicity the past few months. This indicates that if things go better in the economy and in Iraq, Bush's support in Arizona will likely increase. There are still a lot of crises and issues facing the country that are likely to result in volatile public opinion. Polls only measure public opinion at a particular moment in time and there are still five months before the election."

On another subject, only 9 percent of those polled indicated that the current drought has affected them "a great deal." One-third (32 percent) said they were affected "a little bit" and 59 percent said the drought has not affected them at all. Interestingly, even though a majority (59 percent) of those surveyed said the drought had not affected them, 77 percent of those polled said they have reduced water usage. The most frequent conservation activities were limiting lawn watering (34 percent), reducing the use of water in general (16 percent), planting desert landscaping (13 percent), installing "low flow" plumbing fixtures (8 percent), reducing the times they shower or bathe (6 percent), doing laundry less often (6 percent), limiting car washes (5 percent), reducing the amount they water plants (3 percent), limiting indoor water usage (3 percent), limiting using the dishwasher (2 percent), and adjusting the hot water heater (2 percent). Two percent did not give a response.

Finally, the poll asked people who or what they thought was most responsible for the rash of forest fires plaguing Arizona the past few years. Most people blamed the drought and ensuing dry forests (36 percent), careless campers (21 percent), environmental groups (14 percent), the failure to thin forests (12 percent), the "no burn" policy of the Forest Service (5 percent), bark beetles (3 percent), and 9 percent had no opinion.

The statewide poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. Forty-eight percent of those interviewed were female, 52 percent male. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18 percent in Pima County, and 24 percent in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 41 percent Republicans, 35 percent Democrats and 24 percent independents. Women were slightly over-represented (58 percent) in the sample, so sex was statistically weighted to match the proportion of women among registered voters.

1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president of the United States?

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the U.S. economy?

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war against terrorism?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq?

5. In the upcoming presidential election, will you probably vote for:

6. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY: Overall, would you say you are voting more for (candidate chosen) or against (candidate not chosen)?

7. Arizona is currently in a severe drought. How much has the drought personally affected you or the way you live? Has it affected you:

8. What have you done or what are you currently doing to conserve water?

9. Do you believe the government should step in and impose limitations on water or do you think water conservation should be left up to individual users?

10. Which of the following do you think is most responsible for the increase in forest fires in Arizona?

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University