A new statewide poll of 387 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University July 15 - 18, 2004, found that President George Bush's overall job performance rating and ratings for his handling of the economy, the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq declined slightly in the past month and are all now below 50 percent. Forty-seven percent of those interviewed approved of the way Bush is handling the economy, 48 percent approved of the way the president is handling the war against terrorism, and 42 percent approved of the way he is handling the war in Iraq. Forty-seven percent now approve of the job Bush is doing as president, down from 52 percent in June.

The poll also found that Bush and Kerry are in a virtual "dead heat" in Arizona. The president received 41 percent of the vote and Kerry received 42 percent; 17 percent remained undecided. In June, Bush had a slight lead over Kerry 52 percent to 44 percent. The main reason Kerry does well in Arizona is that he does better than Bush among voters registered as independents. Independents favored Kerry over Bush 41 percent to 30 percent with 29 percent undecided. No "gender gap" was found in this poll. People who indicate they attend religious services frequently tend to favor Bush 55 percent to 31 percent. Voters who seldom or never attend religious services preferred Kerry 50 percent to Bush's 30 percent. Kerry supporters also continue to be voting more "against" Bush (66 percent) than "for" Kerry. Only 22 percent of those who indicated they preferred Bush said they were really voting against Kerry.

The July survey also found that unless some major, unforeseen events happen, neither candidate's supporters are likely to change their minds before November. Ninety-one percent of Bush's supporters and 86 percent of those supporting Kerry say they feel strongly about their commitment and are unlikely to change.

A majority of Arizona voters (52 percent) felt adding Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., to the ticket strengthened the Kerry campaign. However, an experimental design where one-half of those interviewed were asked how they would vote between Bush and Kerry and the other one-half of the sample were asked who they would vote for between the Bush/Cheney ticket and the Kerry/Edwards ticket indicated adding Edwards to the ticket did little to help Kerry and may have helped Bush slightly. The Bush/Kerry numbers were Bush 38 percent, Kerry 42 percent with 20 percent undecided. The Bush/Cheney ticket received 44 percent of the vote, and Kerry/Edwards 42 percent with 14 percent undecided.

On another subject, 74 percent of those polled said they would vote in favor of Protect Arizona Now, an initiative which may appear on the November ballot that would deny state and local social and welfare services to illegal immigrants and require individuals to show proof of citizenship when they vote. Sixteen percent were opposed to the measure and 10 percent said they were undecided. Support was found in all party and demographic groups. The percent of those who said they would vote in favor is up slightly from September 2003, when 70 percent of those interviewed said they would support the initiative. In last September's poll, 20 percent said they would oppose the measure and 10 percent had no opinion.

Finally, the poll asked people how they would vote if an initiative appears on the November ballot to overturn the Clean Elections law. Eighteen percent said they would vote to overturn the current law, 57 percent said they would probably vote against overturning it and 25 percent were undecided or had no opinion.

The statewide poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percent. Forty-eight percent* of those interviewed were female; 52 percent male. Fifty-eight percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 18 percent in Pima County, and 24 percent in the less populated counties. The sample consisted of 40 percent Republicans, 36 percent Democrats and 24 percent independents or other.

*Women were slightly over-represented (56 percent) in the sample, so sex was statistically weighted to match the proportion of women among registered voters.

1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president of the United States?

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the U.S. economy?

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war against terrorism?

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the war in Iraq?

5. In the upcoming presidential election, will you probably vote for:

6. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY: Overall, would you say you are voting more for (candidate chosen) or against (candidate not chosen)?

7. ASK ONLY IF VOTING FOR BUSH OR KERRY: Would you say you are pretty firm in your support for (candidate chosen) or is there a possibility you might change your mind before election day?

8. In general do think adding Sen. John Edwards to the ticket will help or hurt
Kerry's chances of becoming president or not make a difference?

9. In November, an initiative may be on the ballot called Protect Arizona Now. This initiative would deny state and local social and welfare services to illegal immigrants and require everyone who registers to vote to prove they are U. S. citizens and to provide identification when voting.

Will you probably vote for or against this proposition?

10. In 1998, Arizona voters approved Clean Elections, which created public financing for political candidates who agreed to Clean Elections guidelines. It also requires nonparticipating candidates to adhere to reporting requirements. Money for candidates who participate is obtained from surcharges on civil and criminal fines and from voluntary contributions made on state income tax returns.

An initiative to overturn Clean Elections may be on the November ballot. If so, will you probably vote in favor of or against an initiative to overturn Clean Elections?

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University