KAET-ASU Poll

A new statewide telephone poll of 400 registered voters conducted by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University Feb. 17-20, 2005, found that a majority of registered voters would support another term for Gov. Janet Napolitano. Fifty-nine percent said they definitely (31 percent) or probably (28 percent) would support her, while twenty-nine percent said they probably (16 percent) or definitely would not (13 percent) support her. Twelve percent were undecided.

The poll also found that, at this early date, voters prefer Napolitano over Congressman J.D. Hayworth, former Maricopa County Attorney Rick Romley and former Gov. Fife Symington by significant margins. Hayworth received 28 percent of the vote to Napolitano's 54 percent, Romley received 25 percent of the vote to Napolitano's 50 percent and Symington received 14 percent to Napolitano's 70 percent.

The poll also found that voters favor sending Sen. Jon Kyl back to the Senate for another term. Fifty-five percent said they definitely (20 percent) or probably
(35 percent) would support Kyl in 2006. Twenty-five percent said they definitely (13 percent) or probably (12 percent) would vote against the senator; 20 percent were undecided.

Dr. Bruce Merrill, who directed the survey, cautions that "it is more than a year before voters will begin to seriously consider who they will vote for in 2006, and a lot can happen in a year. When an incumbent runs for re-election, the major consideration is whether the person is doing a good job and deserves another term in office. It appears that voters believe Gov. Napolitano and Sen. Kyl are now doing jobs worthy of re-election. A lot of money will be spent on campaigns next year trying to convince voters neither candidate is worthy of re-election."

The poll also found that registered voters overwhelmingly reject two bills being debated in the state Legislature. Seventy-eight percent of the state's registered voters do not want people to have firearms in bars or restaurants where alcohol is being consumed. Fifteen percent favored the measure and 7 percent had no opinion. The other bill with little support was one that would allow pharmacists to refuse to fill prescriptions that violated their own moral principles. Seventy-eight percent opposed that bill, 13 percent supported it and 9 percent had no opinion.

Bills that would prohibit the sale of junk food in public schools and allow community colleges to award four-year degrees were supported by voters. Sixty-two percent would prohibit public schools in Arizona from selling junk food, 30 percent would not ban junk foods and 8 percent had no opinion. Seventy-three percent of those polled supported allowing community colleges to award baccalaureate degrees, 8 percent were opposed and 19 percent had no opinion.

There was no consensus on two other bills being considered in this year's legislature. Forty-two percent said they would support prohibiting city and county agencies from spending monies that would support day labor centers or help illegal immigrants get jobs.

The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. Sixty-one percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 16 percent in Pima County, and 23 percent in the less populated counties. The sample was 41 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 25 percent independent. Fifty-two percent of voters interviewed were female and 48 percent were male.

Questions:

1. First, as you probably know, Gov. Napolitano will be up for re-election next year. The way you feel now will you:
definitely vote to give her another term 31%
probably vote for her 28%
probably not vote for her or 16%
definitely not vote for her 13%
undecided 12%

2. U.S. Senator Jon Kyl also will be up for election. The way you feel now, will you:
definitely vote to give him another term 20%
probably vote for him 35%
probably not vote for him or 12%
definitely vote for him 13%
undecided 20%

3. Three people often are mentioned as most likely to run against Napolitano next year. If U.S. Congressman J.D. Hayworth runs against Napolitano, who would you probably vote for?
Hayworth? 28%
Napolitano 54%
undecided 18%

4. If former Maricopa County Attorney Rick Romley runs against Napolitano, who would you probably vote for?
Rick Romley 25%
Napolitano, 50%
undecided 25%

5. And if former Gov. Fife Symington runs against Napolitano, who would you probably vote for?
Symington 14%
Napolitano 70%
undecided 16%

Now, I would like to read to you the description of a few bills being considered by the Arizona Legislature. Tell me if you would approve or disapprove of each one. If you don't have an opinion just tell me and I'll go on to the next one.

6. A bill in the legislature would prohibit any county or city from spending tax money to fund day labor centers or for helping undocumented workers. Would you support or oppose this bill?
support 42%
oppose 38%
undecided 20%

7. Under another bill, the state would phase out the sharing of state income tax and corporate tax revenues with cities that are over 100,000 in population, resulting in lower state income and corporate taxes. However, it would allow these cities to impose their own municipal income and corporate taxes. Individuals in smaller cities would see reduced state taxes but not be subject to a municipal income tax. Would you support or oppose this bill?
support 23%
oppose 39%
undecided 38%

8. Another bill would make it legal for people to carry firearms into bars and restaurants that serve alcohol as long as the person carrying the firearm was not drinking alcohol. Would you support or oppose this bill?
support 15%
oppose 78%
undecided 7%

9. Would you support or oppose a bill that would allow pharmacists to refuse to fill prescriptions for contraceptives if it is against their moral or religious beliefs?
support 13%
oppose 78%
undecided 9%

10. Another bill being considered would prohibit the sale of so-called "junk" foods or foods with high sugar content or low nutritional value in grades K thru 12. Would you support or oppose this bill?
support 62%
oppose 30%
undecided 8%

11. Finally, a bill is being considered that would allow community colleges to offer four-year baccalaureate degrees? Would you support or oppose this bill?
support 73%
oppose 8%
undecided 19%

KAET-TV is a part of Arizona State University.